# What would YOU like to see mathcrafted?



## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Hey guys,

I'm enjoying using the combat calculator quite a lot, so I'm offering to run scenarios that you give me.

I have access to the following Codicies:

Eldar
Dark Eldar
Orks
Vanilla Marines
Chaos Space Marines
Tau
Imperial Guard
Necrons

And of course the Big Rule Book.

So if the unit you want to see does not appear in these books, please PM me the statline of the unit or weapon including points costs (in the Fire Warrior currency if doing so in pure numbers violates IP rules - I don't know if that just applies to forum posts) and equipment so I can weigh up the pros and cons more efficiently.

Please specify if you want me to measure anything other than what the unit is obviously intended for (e.g. you want to know how many wounds you can inflict on a Trygon with a Fire Warrior squad) otherwise I will assume you want to know how well they perform in their standard roles (Shooting vs infantry, shooting vs vehicles, combat vs infantry, combat vs vehicles etc etc).

Obviously I won't be able to spend hours upon hours doing this (not being paid, you know!), but will try to get all requests done as much as life allows. Also please read the thread before requesting something in case I have already answered it, or something very similar. For example please don't ask for a breakdown of Chaos Space Marines rapid firing when I've already done Vanilla Marines.

I can happily compare how several units perform at one job to help you decide which one to take, or just let you know what you can expect from a single given unit.

On a specific note, the Calculator doesn't seem to like working out anything with "Haywire" in the title, so I'm afraid the Eldar/Dark Eldar players are shit out of luck in that department. I'll reply and tell you if I can't do something you requested for any reason.

Take it easy,

Sethis


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

If I understand correctly what your saying you will do, how about this...

A land raider redeemer with 5 TH/SS assault terminators and Lysander, vs Kharn the betrayer and 5 bezerkers. How many kills will the land raider get, then how many kills will the terminators get, how many wounds will the TAS suffer, etc?


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Ultra111 said:


> A land raider redeemer with 5 TH/SS assault terminators and Lysander, vs Kharn the betrayer and 5 bezerkers.


Please bear in mind that this is intended to help people write their lists, not come up with random scenarios that they think would be funny or are just aimlessly curious about.  Of course if your opponent normally fields Kharn in a Zerker squad and you want to know how well a given unit might do against them, then that's fine! k:



Ultra111 said:


> How many kills will the land raider get?


Assuming the template hits 3 men (always hard to model template weapons accurately) and it shoots the Assault Cannon as well, it will get 3.88 kills assuming the Chaos player assigns no wounds to Kharn.




Ultra111 said:


> how many wounds will the TAS suffer, etc?


Bearing in mind that the Zerkers strike first, I'll answer this question first. Also bear in mind that special rules like Kharn's "Betrayer" can be very hard to work out. Since it has a 1-in-6 chance of happening and he only has 5 attacks, I'm going to assume it doen't happen for simplicities sake.

Kharn: 0.92 Wounds
2 Surviving Zerkers: 0.33 Wounds

So you will lose, on average, 1.25 Terminators assuming the Chaos player strikes at the squad



Ultra111 said:


> then how many kills will the terminators get?


Lets assume the Terminators attack the Zerkers and Lysander attacks Kharn.

Terminators: 2.5 Wounds - Killing both Zerkers.
Lysander: 1.11 Wounds - Which will Instant-kill Kharn since he doesn't have EW.

So, in short, the Termies will massacre the Zerkers (unsurprisingly) and lose one man themselves assuming we follow the averages. If you would like me to make less assumptions about what happens, then please specify a bit more!


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## KingOfCheese (Jan 4, 2010)

Personally i value the actual odds rather than averages for mathhammer.
Although calculating the odds for the above example would be fairly tricky, and would take a while to work out.

Averages are flawed when using them for 40k.
Averages say that 6 saves taken on a Terminator is enough to kill them (1/6)*6 = 1

Where as odds show that 33.5% of the time the Terminator will still be standing.
(5/6)^6 = 33.5%

Whenever people say to me "i got ripped off, those 6 saves should have killed your Terminator", i always laugh and say "well, you only had a 66.5% chance, and you didnt get it, so stop crying." :laugh:


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

That's fine mate. 

And I know, it's not just a scenario; my mate is starting a khorne-themed chaos army so I wanted an idea of what would happen 

I have another one for you...

A space marine tactical squad (combat squadding). The first combat squad has a ML marine and a razorback with TLLC (they are not in the razorback). The second Combat squad has a flamer and sergeant with PW. 

What would the outcome be of shooting, then assaulting, a squad of 30 ork boyz with a nob with Powerklaw when the ork boyz are around 24 inches away from the tactical squad, and they run instead of shoot? (Not sure how you will work out the running distance...maybe just take each running phase as 3"?)

If you need me to explain better, just ask. 

have some rep for helping me out xD


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

KingOfCheese said:


> Personally i value the actual odds rather than averages for mathhammer.
> Although calculating the odds for the above example would be fairly tricky, and would take a while to work out.


Fair enough, I'm just offering to save people's time by using Heresy Online's own combat calculator, rather than generate a spreadsheet myself. It gives a good enough example of what to expect from a given unit in a given situation. Obviously it all depends on your dice rolling in the end though!



Ultra111 said:


> A space marine tactical squad (combat squadding). The first combat squad has a ML marine and a razorback with TLLC (they are not in the razorback). The second Combat squad has a flamer and sergeant with PW.
> 
> What would the outcome be of shooting, then assaulting, a squad of 30 ork boyz with a nob with Powerklaw when the ork boyz are around 24 inches away from the tactical squad, and they run instead of shoot? (Not sure how you will work out the running distance...maybe just take each running phase as 3"?)


Urgh, another complex one! Let's take it step by step. The Orks run an average of 9.5" per turn, which gives you two full turns of shooting followed by one turn of flaming, pistoling and assaulting (I assume with both squads of marines). Let's do one unit at a time.

Combat Squad with ML: 3.33 Kills per turn for the first two turns
Razorback: 1.29 Kills for first two turns
Combat Squad with Flamer: 1 Kill per turn for first two turns

Two turns of static shooting: 11.24 Dead Orks

And now the shooting inside 12":

9 Pistols from both squads: 3 Wounds
1 Flamer (assuming 6 hits): 3 Wounds
Razorback: 2.03 Wounds

8 More dead Orks (19 in total from all shooting, leaving 11 alive including the Nob).

Assault (both combat squads):

Marines kill 4.37 Orks
Ork Survivors kill 2.08 Marines

Orks take Ld Test on effective Ld 5 and if they break are probably caught by the sweep.

Of course this is assuming the Orks do not ever get cover, never use Waagh etc etc.

EDIT: I crafted the Razorback as having a Lascannon/Twin Plasma weapon instead for some reason, let me know if you care enough to want it fixed.


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## Alhazred (Sep 13, 2010)

Hey Sethis, I really appreciate the opportunity you're putting out here, as mathhammer scares me and I'd rather not get hit in the face by it. In any event, I have two scenarios, feel free to respond to either or neither.

#1: A 10 man Telion scout squad with 8x SRs and 1 ML vs. Ultra's Ork squad starting at 48'' (a bit far, I know).

#2: A 5 man Scout squad with 4 SRs, 1 ML and a PF vs. 5 Tactical Marines in a Rhino with a flamer at 24''.

Just trying to determine the viability of Scouts as a source of killyness. Thanks in advance and +rep :biggrin:


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Alhazred said:


> #1: A 10 man Telion scout squad with 8x SRs and 1 ML vs. Ultra's Ork squad starting at 48'' (a bit far, I know).


48" gives you 4 turns of shooting given average run rolls before you hit combat. The Sniper Rifles and Telion will only get three rounds due to their 36" range assuming the Orks go first.

Move (now at 39"), Shoot ML
Move (now at 30"), Shoot ML and Snipers
Move (now at 21"), Shoot ML and Snipers
Move (now at 12"), Shoot ML and Snipers
Assault

In total the squad you outlined will kill 14.58 Orks assuming the ML hits 3 models per turn and Telion doesn't pick out the Nob (who he is not going to kill, on average, before they hit combat).

The orks will remain fearless regardless, and be immune to pinning. They will then assault you and you will die (If you want to see how many you take with you, let me know).



Alhazred said:


> #2: A 5 man Scout squad with 4 SRs, 1 ML and a PF vs. 5 Tactical Marines in a Rhino with a flamer at 24''.


Assuming you go first and the Rhino is not in cover, you have the following chances of damaging it:

Shaken:	0.164
Stunned:	0.096
Weapon Destroyed:	0.096
Immobilized:	0.096
Wrecked:	0.062
Explodes:	0.062

So not great odds. The next turn it will move 12", pop smoke, and reduce the odds of you harming it by half. It's difficult to say exactly what happens next without more specific instructions. Do your Scouts want to assault the tank with the fist? Do the Tac marines get out and Rapid Fire? Do they sit in the tank and shoot you with a flamer until you manage to kill it? Do they in fact want to sit 24" away and shoot you with a pintle mounted storm bolter and 2 boltguns from the top hatch?

In general I would say you'll lose that matchup, but if you want me to mathcraft any more specific courses of action then I'll do so.


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## Alhazred (Sep 13, 2010)

Thanks for the odds. A lot of people reference sniping the Nobs out of hordes with Telion, but the math seems to make it a lot less viable. I knew Telion would lose, but I was looking for a margin of error for his sniping and how much damage the squad as a whole would do (If he could reliably snipe the Nob I was going to assault the unit with a dread).

As for the second scenario, I recalled hearing a player moan about how a scout squad with a PF consistently beat his 5 CSM in assault. I was looking to verify those odds here, sorry for any confusion. The Scouts would be stubborn as well, which I forgot to mention. Either way, I really appreciate the maths you did.

Thanks again :biggrin:


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

That was fine mate, don't worry about the razorback mix up


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

No worries. Telion has a little less than 50/50 chance of killing a Nob in 3 turns, he ought to be dead by turn 4. The player complaining might have been fighting against CCW scouts rather than sniper scouts, but even then he would have to be hugely unlucky to lose to them.


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## LukeValantine (Dec 2, 2008)

I got a head scratchier for you.

7 man havoc squad - 3 Auto Cannons (in 4+ Cover)
7 man havoc squad 4- 4XHeavy bolters
csm Dreadnought - Missle launcher, TL/Autocannon
3 Oblitorators (In 4+ Cover)

against
3 ravengers with shadow fields
2 raiders with kabilite(sp?) warriors (4+cover from being behind a building)

Dark eldar are in range do to a less then spectacular move and shoot in their first turn, and it is the csm players turn what happens.


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## KingOfCheese (Jan 4, 2010)

Sethis said:


> No worries. Telion has a little less than 50/50 chance of killing a Nob in 3 turns, he ought to be dead by turn 4.


I took the time to calculate the chances of dealing wounds with Telion vs a Nob.

2 wounds 18.5%
1 wound 49%
0 wounds 32.5%


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

A Nob with a 4+ save? Seems a bit high...

Lukevalentine, you're going to have to be much more specific than that - I can tell you what happens when X models shoot at Y target but can't tell you how someone is going to pick targets or with how many units.

Again, this is mainly to help people choose units for their army lists - For example are Khorne Bezerkers or Possessed better CC choices against a variety of infantry than Terminators with lightning claws if the points are equal?


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## KingOfCheese (Jan 4, 2010)

Sethis said:


> A Nob with a 4+ save? Seems a bit high...


A Nob with a 6+ save.
(Not often a Nob hiding in a unit of Boyz is given Eavy Armour)


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## Nave Senrag (Jul 8, 2010)

I happen to have a couple.

How many kills per turn would a ten man Ratling squad average against a ten man marine squad? To rephrase, I want to know how many kills the squad would get after one round of shooting.

If you have time the same Ratling squad against a space marine dreadnought.


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Most people I've seen field Nobz with Klaw and Armour as standard, I guess it's a regional thing.



Nave Senrag said:


> How many kills per turn would a ten man Ratling squad average against a ten man marine squad?


They would average 1.85 kills per turn



Nave Senrag said:


> If you have time the same Ratling squad against a space marine dreadnought.


0.37 Glancing hits per turn, so you can reasonably expect to glance it once every three turns.


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## KingOfCheese (Jan 4, 2010)

Nave Senrag said:


> If you have time the same Ratling squad against a space marine dreadnought.


Each shot has...
1.85% chance to get Crew Shaken
0.62% chance to get Crew Stunned
0.62% chance to get Weapon Destroyed
0.62% chance to get Immobilized


With 10 shots, the chances of getting at least 1 glancing hit is 31.44%.
But then you still need to roll on the damage chart with a -2 modifier.

In other words, you would have to be EXTREMELY lucky to do anything


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Isn't that what I just said? :scratchhead:


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## KingOfCheese (Jan 4, 2010)

Sethis said:


> Isn't that what I just said? :scratchhead:


I hit the reply button before i seen your post, didnt submit till 15-20 minutes after i hit reply.

On average you will score an average of 0.37 hits.
The chances of actually scoring a hit is 31.44%.

Its the old "double-coin-flip" difference.


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Yeah no worries - I saw the 10 minute gap and was just wondering why "Glance once every three turns" needed to be reiterated as "31% chance to glance" which seemed pretty obvious to me! :laugh:


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## syypher (Aug 11, 2010)

@Sethis: Thanks for this opportunity...I will gladly give you something I've been pondering about to mathcraft 

Str6/Str7/Str8/Str9 shooting against a: (No Melta effects)

Eldar Wave Serpent: With Cover Save with fortune, With Cover Save without fortune

Eldar Fire Prism: With Holo shield with fortune, With Holo shield without fortune

SM Rhino: With Cover Save and without cover save


Thanks!


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

syypher said:


> @Sethis: Thanks for this opportunity...I will gladly give you something I've been pondering about to mathcraft
> 
> Str6/Str7/Str8/Str9 shooting against a: (No Melta effects)
> 
> ...


I think he will need to know what BS you are shooting at as well mate.


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## syypher (Aug 11, 2010)

Ultra111 said:


> I think he will need to know what BS you are shooting at as well mate.


Oh ya umm... The Str6/7/8/9 shots will be shooting at Ballistic Skill 4!

Sorry about that >_< Thanks for catching that Ultra111


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

syypher said:


> Oh ya umm... The Str6/7/8/9 shots will be shooting at Ballistic Skill 4!
> 
> Sorry about that >_< Thanks for catching that Ultra111


Glad to help


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## deviant_cadaver (Sep 6, 2008)

Was wondering of the survivability of 8 blood crushers vs 7 blood crushers 4 having wound allocation.

Say fighting a 20 man tac squad ( tac squad gets the charge).

and the same units fighting 10 terminates with lightning claws.

Thank you in advance.


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

deviant_cadaver said:


> Was wondering of the survivability of 8 blood crushers vs 7 blood crushers 4 having wound allocation.
> 
> Say fighting a 20 man tac squad ( tac squad gets the charge).
> 
> ...


20 man tac squad? Do you mean 2 x 10 man tac squads, or was it a typo? Because tac squads can only have a maximum of 10 marines per squad 

I'm sure Sethis will be along shortly to help you guys out.


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## Trihnicus (Oct 8, 2010)

could be Black templars Initiates + neophytes


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## Ultra111 (Jul 9, 2009)

Trihnicus said:


> could be Black templars Initiates + neophytes


Are they called tactical squads in the Black templar codex though? I've never read it.

If so then my bad


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## Krymson86 (Nov 9, 2010)

Could you please work out the combat results for a 5 man squad of Terminators/CSM (with no Chaos Marks) with Kantor attatched to them vs a Captain with dual lightning claws and a command squad with the following weapon load out: Champion with power sword, Veteran with one lightning claw, one veteran with power fist, Standard with chainsword, apothecary with chainsword. 

Note: The Captain and his command squad are initiating the assault. 

Thanks for the help. I field a command squad with my dual LC captain and sometimes I find myself having to deal with Terminators (both CSM and SM) when my own Terminators are on the other side of the map.


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## Orochi (Jan 28, 2009)

What is the Circumference of a moose?


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## deviant_cadaver (Sep 6, 2008)

Ultra111 said:


> 20 man tac squad? Do you mean 2 x 10 man tac squads, or was it a typo? Because tac squads can only have a maximum of 10 marines per squad
> 
> I'm sure Sethis will be along shortly to help you guys out.


yeah lol 2 x 10 man you make more sense. They run through 10 do fast I thought id have to make it 20 forgot they don't go that big.


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## jfvz (Oct 23, 2010)

Im wondering how a group of hormagants with toxin sacs would go against an equal point value unit of 5 th/ss assult termies. I PMed the rest of the details you need.


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## Aramoro (Oct 7, 2009)

jfvz said:


> Im wondering how a group of hormagants with toxin sacs would go against an equal point value unit of 5 th/ss assult termies. I PMed the rest of the details you need.


That ones easy, the Gants sweep away the Termies a shower of blood and armour bits as they get rended limb from limb. 

If they get the Charge they'll kill 3 termies, making the fight back and subsequent wounds kinda moot.

If the Termies Charge 2 will die first, they'll kill 5 Gaunt in return and maybe get lucky with the Break test or just inflict a few more fearless wounds. After that the Termies get swamped again.


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Sorry been rather busy lately. Will get results for these up today as/when I have time!


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

syypher said:


> Str6/Str7/Str8/Str9 shooting against a: (No Melta effects)
> 
> Eldar Wave Serpent: With Cover Save with fortune, With Cover Save without fortune


Didn't bother with S9 for this one, so the results go S6, S7 and S8.

*Fortuned*

Chance to not shoot: 0.019 - 0.028 - 0.037
Chance to Immob/Destroy Weapon: 0.010 - 0.018 - 0.028
Chance to destroy: 0.000 - 0.010 - 0.018

*Not Fortuned*

Chance to not shoot: 0.037 - 0.056 - 0.074
Chance to Immob/Destroy Weapon: 0.018 - 0.038 - 0.056
Chance to destroy: 0.000 - 0.018 - 0.038



syypher said:


> Eldar Fire Prism: With Holo shield with fortune, With Holo shield without fortune


Unfortunately the calculator has no realistic way of crafting the Holofield. Suffice to say that it more or less halves the chance of you being destroyed, due to needing a double 5 or 6 rather than a single one. If you look at it as a 1-in-3 chance then needing to do it twice becomes a 1-in-6 chance if I remember my probability correctly.



syypher said:


> SM Rhino: With Cover Save and without cover save


*Cover*

Chance to not shoot: 0.056 - 0.074 - 0.093 - 0.111
Chance to Immob/Destroy Weapon: 0.038 - 0.056 - 0.074 - 0.092
Chance to destroy: 0.018 - 0.038 - 0.056 - 0.074

*No cover*

Chance to not shoot: 0.111 - 0.149 - 0.185 - 0.223
Chance to Immob/Destroy Weapon: 0.074 - 0.112 - 0.148 - 0.186
Chance to destroy: 0.038 - 0.074 - 0.112 - 0.148


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## jfvz (Oct 23, 2010)

Sethis said:


> Unfortunately the calculator has no realistic way of crafting the Holofield. Suffice to say that it more or less halves the chance of you being destroyed, due to needing a double 5 or 6 rather than a single one. If you look at it as a 1-in-3 chance then needing to do it twice becomes a 1-in-6 chance if I remember my probability correctly.


The way i understand probility, there will be a 1 in 3 chance that 1 5/6 will be rolled, then it has a 1 in 3 chance to roll another 5/6 , so it has a third of a third or a 1 in 9 chance


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## Wolf_Lord_Skoll (Jun 9, 2008)

jfvz said:


> The way i understand probility, there will be a 1 in 3 chance that 1 5/6 will be rolled, then it has a 1 in 3 chance to roll another 5/6 , so it has a third of a third or a 1 in 9 chance


Aye, you are correct.


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## syypher (Aug 11, 2010)

@Sethis: Thanks man! Appreciate your time and help!


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## Sethis (Jun 4, 2009)

Aramoro has basically answered the Gaunts question for me, I can provide more specific numbers if you really need them, but basically the Gaunts win every time.

I've PM'd the members who made other requests in order to get more information. Would anyone else like to know anything?


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