# Will 40k lose it's dominance with the release of Warpath?



## Marneus Calgar (Dec 5, 2007)

I just had an email from Beasts of War (I say just, it's been there for a while). It asked will 40k lose it's top spot in the Sci Fi tabletop gaming table. 

So, I though Heresy might have some insightful comments on the subject, what do you all think? Does Mantic really pose a threat to Games Workshop and the game they've built up for the last 30 years? What with their cheaper prices, Games Designer that worked for GW. Basically the same races (announced so far), and what will appear to be a great rules system.

So, compared to GW's 30 years of games, some of the greatest designers and rule guys in the business and some of the best miniatures around today. 

How much of a thread does Mantic and "Warpath" really pose to our favourite tabletop game? 

I'd also appreciate it if this thread does not become a "Bash GW and Bash Mantic" thread...


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## The Sullen One (Nov 9, 2008)

Somehow I'd be surprised if the release of a rules set from Mantic could end GW's dominance, at least not in an appreciable amount of time. GW have seen a fair bit of competition over the years and while things like Flames of War and Warmachine have come along and made an impression, neither have yet gotten to the stage where they challenge GW in a noticeable way. When Mantic have stores in most towns and cities, they might pose a challenge, but until that happens I don't think there's a way they can overtake GW as the market leader.


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## Viscount Vash (Jan 3, 2007)

One small nibble at a time over a longer period maybe.

But Mantic have a long way to go before they will threaten Privateer Press let alone GW.

Ask me again in 30 years. :laugh:


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## elmir (Apr 14, 2011)

I don't think so. GWs business model focusses on new players who start from nothing. It is the most well known tabletop wargame out there, and everybody who starts it has to start by getting rules to go along with their miniatures. 

Any salesman will tell you to pick up the book first, or the starter kit. Once you do that, you basically have rules. Why would you change them? I can see warpath doing well for veteran wargamers or for people who get introduced to wargaming by a veteran player. But most starting players are young kids with acces to their parent's credit card. And they'll most likely be introduced to the warhammer rules. 

After all, GW does write rather easy rules. They don't always make sense, nor are they totally unambigeous, but they generally work. 

So no, if little timmy in the GW store doesn't notice that it excists, GW won't be losing the first place. After all, it's those kids who bring in the big cash (and they wouldn't know if their pants are pulled down over the price, because they don't have any comparisons).


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## LukeValantine (Dec 2, 2008)

30 years from now the forum is rededicated to warpath, and we are all enslaved buy sexy robot maids?


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## Maidel (Jun 28, 2009)

Viscount Vash said:


> But Mantic have a long way to go before they will threaten Privateer Press let alone GW.
> 
> Ask me again in 30 years. :laugh:


This :goodpost:


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## gen.ahab (Dec 22, 2009)

Did Kings of War nuke WHFB?



LukeValantine said:


> 30 years from now the forum is rededicated to warpath, and we are all enslaved buy sexy robot maids?


........Please?


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## turel2 (Mar 2, 2009)

Lets see the Minis before deciding anything.


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## coke123 (Sep 4, 2010)

Doubt it.

Although which GW games designer do they have?


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## Marneus Calgar (Dec 5, 2007)

coke123 said:


> Doubt it.
> 
> Although which GW games designer do they have?


Alessio Calvatore


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## Fallen (Oct 7, 2008)

it depends on the rules set to me, if the rules have almost no problems to deal with then i would be willing to try the game out.

but just looking @ mantic's current line im not really impressed with the model line. so the models wont convince me to change games.


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## Varakir (Sep 2, 2009)

Hinges on the models for me. If they are awesome then they might nab some players who are looking for a GW sci-fi alternative on a grander scale to what's available.


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## Ninjurai (Mar 31, 2010)

Heresy!!!!

Inquisitors have been dispached. Hail the GOD EMPEROR!!!


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## Shandathe (May 2, 2010)

Actually, I have good enough memories of Alessio that I'll at the very least give Warpath's rules a try or three.

I may use GW models for it and thus not be a good Mantic customer, but I'll give it a try


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## coke123 (Sep 4, 2010)

Marneus Calgar said:


> Alessio Calvatore


Refresh my memory, isn't that the guy who admitted to screwing up the CSM codex? In what way is that good for Mantic?

Has he done anything good of note?


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## Moonschwine (Jun 13, 2011)

I'd be surprised to see anything knocking GW from the top spot at least for the next decade or so. Really alot of wargames people come across come through playing Warhammer first and then discovering other product lines - that gateway is a considerable profit area for sales since ultimately the amount of kids is nigh endless. 

Like already mentioned, until Mantic have a hobby store in all major Towns/Cities/Shopping Centres then its a long battle uphill. I remember when Warmachine first came out, a local gaming club I used to go to almost went to civil war with itself about the supposed end of Fantasy on the horizon. A good few years on I'm still waiting to see my GW close down and the staff move on.

It will be interesting to see how they develop as a company however. GW have learnt alot of lessons both hash and fair about modelling and have put alot of R&D into developing new technologies.Despite what some argue - they do produce quality product at a consistent rate - the error / moulding issues you get today extends to little more than some flash and mold lines. Also: Just look at the release of Finecast - this is a big step in the next generation of models - which is a big edge over what Mantic is currently producing.


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## Shandathe (May 2, 2010)

coke123 said:


> Refresh my memory, isn't that the guy who admitted to screwing up the CSM codex? In what way is that good for Mantic?
> 
> Has he done anything good of note?


Yes, he did admit that. Mind you, so did Gav Thorpe. A codex is rarely the product of one man 

As for what he's done good of note... Well, among other things he was responsible for the main rules for 5th Edition and Apocalypse. I think he did at least one edition of Fantasy too. Whether that's good or not I'll leave up to you  I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for constructing a new rule system for games on his work so far though.


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## Masked Jackal (Dec 16, 2009)

Frankly, one rules system will *not* be enough to bring 40k down. That will take years upon years of dedication to even compete. The doom of GW will come slowly, if at all.


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## LukeValantine (Dec 2, 2008)

This thread needs some randomness to cheer it up, the following word combinations have been found to induce humor like sensations in 27% of people named bill.

Man whale
Lazer cat
Alpha Donkey
Electric eyebrows

...that is all.


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## Hero of Coffee (Apr 9, 2011)

What the hell is a Warpath? *nuzzles his Grey Knights*


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## maddermax (May 12, 2008)

The Sullen One said:


> Somehow I'd be surprised if the release of a rules set from Mantic could end GW's dominance, at least not in an appreciable amount of time. GW have seen a fair bit of competition over the years and while things like Flames of War and Warmachine have come along and made an impression, neither have yet gotten to the stage where they challenge GW in a noticeable way. When Mantic have stores in most towns and cities, they might pose a challenge, but until that happens I don't think there's a way they can overtake GW as the market leader.


Actually, according to this site (ICv2), a comics and gaming industry website, Warmachine is already beating Warhammer Fantasy in terms of sales, and Hordes is close behind in 4th place. So PP is certainly getting up there, even if their business model doesn't include include their own chain of stores. It's like Iphone vs. Android in that respect: Apple has it's own stores, along with selling through other companies, while Android sells exclusively through other companies, but Android has managed to gain ground (and now has overtaken) Iphone sales despite the apple store advantage.

That said, I don't think GW is going to lose top billing for a while yet, and it won't lose it at all unless it makes some serious missteps in it's major markets (England and the USA), or it produces a particularly poor new edition of 40k that turns off the fan base. It has a lot of external factors that will keep it in front for a while - 30 years of history, an extended universe with book series and computer games, a large established fan base (which often passes on their passion to players looking to start a wargame) and a lot of fan stuff already set up (such as this forum, and established tournaments and events).

But while GW will probably stay the top dog, they are losing their total dominance of the market place already, as other options become more mainstream. Before it was "play GW, or play a game where you can't find any opponents, and which doesn't have any game support", other options (PP, FOW, and others) are reaching the critical mass of players necessary to keep them going. That's not necessarily going to impact GWs sales though, because while they might lose some market share, the market itself is growing - essentially they'll end up getting a smaller piece of a larger pie, which will be fine for them anyway.

Mantic games will be an interesting challenge though, because their products are basically direct challenges to GW, but with a cheaper price. That's for the models at least, but when it comes to the games, I doubt Warpath or Kings of War are going to gain the following needed to challenge 40k or Fantasy for dominance. They'll be curiosities to be tried out by older gamers looking for something a little different, at least to start with. The thing is though, they will be waiting in the wings with an established game if GW farks up a new edition of 40k, or if there's more of an exodus from Fantasy. Until then though, I think Mantic will mostly be competing with GW by supplying cheap models for GW games.


So, in short: GW has lost it's near monopoly on the wargaming market, but it will still be number 1 for quite a while yet, barring major fuckups. Mantic probably isn't going to change the market significantly (except to undercut GW on miniatures for GW games) in the short term, but they'll be waiting in the wings if GW messes up, as gamers can transfer more easily to their system with their miniatures than to WM/H or FoW.


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## Stephen_Newman (Jul 14, 2009)

I doubt that GW will be falling anytime soon. Most people in my local area have never even heard of Hordes, Flames of War or Warmachine. When they start becoming more well known then I might reconsider.

Also I would like to add that GW advertise itself more widely than the others. Not just by having stores but sometimes drawing players in through their games or even literature. The other companies need to start doing this before GW even come close to losing their grip on the wargaming market.

ALthough this situation could be like the fall. With Mantic being Slaanesh but in our arrogance we do not care but it wil CONSUME OUR SOULS!!!!


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## chromedog (Oct 31, 2007)

I'll give it a go.
With my 40k stuff.

The same way I did for Stargrunt (while it has its own miniatures range, the writers don't particularly care where the minis come from - unlike some companies).

The same as I'll do for Tomorrow's War.


@Stephen Newman: The only advertising GW does is in their own ad rag and stores (unlike Apple, whom at least advertise their wares outside of their own 'stores'). They do not take up advertising space in other gaming publications (unlike Mantic, PP, or other gaming and miniatures companies. The rest of their "advertising" is by the players of their games who do it for free. 
(Why pay thousands in advertising to Ad Shills when thousands of willing and eager ***** will do the job for free?)


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## humakt (Jan 2, 2008)

I suspect GW will be top dog for the next few years. Although they are no longer 1 and 2, you dont see the difference between the top and number 2. I suspect it is substantial.


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## maddermax (May 12, 2008)

Stephen_Newman said:


> I doubt that GW will be falling anytime soon. Most people in my local area have never even heard of Hordes, Flames of War or Warmachine. When they start becoming more well known then I might reconsider.
> 
> Also I would like to add that GW advertise itself more widely than the others. Not just by having stores but sometimes drawing players in through their games or even literature. The other companies need to start doing this before GW even come close to losing their grip on the wargaming market.
> 
> ALthough this situation could be like the fall. With Mantic being Slaanesh but in our arrogance we do not care but it wil CONSUME OUR SOULS!!!!


I think you also have to consider that you live in England, GWs home base, as it were. I think GW has a much tighter grip on England than anywhere else, but other markets aren't quite as dominated by GW. GW has more stores there, better prices there, more history there and the most support of anywhere, so that's it's the bastion of GWs market, but Australia, Canada and the USA are far easier markets for other companies to break into. Especially Australia at the moment, considering the angst at GW because of recent decisions.

I think it will take a while, and quite a shift in the player base to let PP break in to England, where GW is ubiquitous and synonymous with wargaming, in a major way, but they'll get there eventually.


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## chromedog (Oct 31, 2007)

It did take GW several years after 40k RT to break into Australia enough to make opening their own store not a loss making exercise. They weren't the dominant game back in the late 80s until around 1991 or so, when they had pushed Battletech off that perch.


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## Marneus Calgar (Dec 5, 2007)

coke123 said:


> Refresh my memory, isn't that the guy who admitted to screwing up the CSM codex? In what way is that good for Mantic?
> 
> Has he done anything good of note?


He also helped write the 5th Ed rule book, and to be honest, it's a great ruleset...


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## ohiocat110 (Sep 15, 2010)

More games is always good for the gamer and the industry as a whole. Mantic wisely chose a scale between Warhammer/40K and Epic (or whatever it's called now) so they wouldn't be in direct competition with GW's game systems. 

Mantic is also going all in with the LGS and online instead of opening up their own B&M stores. If they can grow the game enough through word of mouth and online to be successful, that's where they will have an advantage over GW. No sunken costs in stores and staff, which means lower prices. 

Will they wipe out GW? No. Does it matter who "wins"? Not unless you work for one of the companies. It's just good to see growth in tabletop gaming during this terrible economy and when seemingly everybody is playing WoW or Farmville. I don't have the time to start a third minis army between Battletech and 40K, but I wish Mantic luck and if they're around in a few years I might get the urge to give their games a shot.


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## Stephen_Newman (Jul 14, 2009)

maddermax said:


> I think you also have to consider that you live in England, GWs home base, as it were. I think GW has a much tighter grip on England than anywhere else, but other markets aren't quite as dominated by GW. GW has more stores there, better prices there, more history there and the most support of anywhere, so that's it's the bastion of GWs market, but Australia, Canada and the USA are far easier markets for other companies to break into. Especially Australia at the moment, considering the angst at GW because of recent decisions.
> 
> I think it will take a while, and quite a shift in the player base to let PP break in to England, where GW is ubiquitous and synonymous with wargaming, in a major way, but they'll get there eventually.


I think that is a very fair point. I think that most places in Europe will not be under the influence of PP or other outsider companies any time soon.


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## Wusword77 (Aug 11, 2008)

maddermax said:


> Actually, according to this site (ICv2), a comics and gaming industry website, Warmachine is already beating Warhammer Fantasy in terms of sales, and Hordes is close behind in 4th place. So PP is certainly getting up there, even if their business model doesn't include include their own chain of stores. It's like Iphone vs. Android in that respect: Apple has it's own stores, along with selling through other companies, while Android sells exclusively through other companies, but Android has managed to gain ground (and now has overtaken) Iphone sales despite the apple store advantage.


The Apple/Android comparison isn't a fair one to make, as Apple has only recently become available on 2 carriers in the US while Android based phones are available on all major carriers. Plus when buying the iPhone you only have the option of the 3g and the 4 where you have 3 to 4 times as many choices with Android on any given carrier. It really has nothing to do with Apple having their own stores.


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## bitsandkits (Mar 18, 2008)

Nay, nay and thrice nay

40k will dominate and GW will dominate the market, and i predict serious expansion and a greater market share in the next 2 years for GW when the hobbit hits the cinema and the game system hits the shelves, as others have said, GW has far bigger scifi competitor games like warmachine that have been kicking around for 10 years and havent made a dent.


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## ohiocat110 (Sep 15, 2010)

bitsandkits said:


> Nay, nay and thrice nay
> 
> 40k will dominate and GW will dominate the market, and i predict serious expansion and a greater market share in the next 2 years for GW when the hobbit hits the cinema and the game system hits the shelves, as others have said, GW has far bigger scifi competitor games like warmachine that have been kicking around for 10 years and havent made a dent.


We'll see. The biggest problem I see with GW's long range plan is that they're slowly pushing away the LGSs while trying to bolster their own B&M Hobby Centers. 

The Apple comparison show up again. A company should *want* as many people as possible selling their product, and be structured to make their money on wholesale purchases, regardless of how the product is ultimately sold to the consumer. You can buy an iPhone or Mac at a lot of places, but people go to the Apple store because it's cool and they offer a value-add through service. It would seem that GW should operate the same way. You should be able to walk into an LGS and buy product or order it online, but you go to the Hobby Center for the cool factor and the value-add of sanctioned games and special events. 

To me, GW's flaw is that they can't decide where to make their money, so they are squeezing their own distributors and trying to pretend the secondary market doesn't exist when online sales are clearly here to stay. A couple bad decisions in this area could really cost them. FASA should be the cautionary tale that no gaming company is too big to fail. A couple bad business and legal decisions, and you're done.


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## Luisjoey (Dec 3, 2010)

Too much speculations about the warpath, without even had a peek on the miniatures or even the rules. 

As anything is another game, you could still play warhammer and warpath, also mixing miniatures, when i meet mantic at gencon i though that it would be a great CHOICE to warhammer miniatures because they made everything in plastic, also at a different style and size (being the same scale) i bought some mantic zombies and skeletons, they are great, but that wont make me a Mantic game player. 

the rules for mantic fantasy game are pretty similar to warhammer, is what WHFB let behind like initiative on charge, and simplification to the rules; but if we already had WHFB those rules could be simplier, if you are not right with the 8ed rules, play mantic. 

Warpath i hope would be a good choice to the warhammer 40k, but i don´t see it replacing, maybe adding some of their miniatures to my 40k plays


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## SonofVulkan (Apr 14, 2010)

I'll give Warpath a go. It'll be nice to play a Sci-fi game set in a universe that isn't full of Spess Marhine players.

As for Mantic models, I recently bought a box of skeletons out of curiosity. I must say I am very impressed with the quality and will be buying more of there stuff in the future.


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## Muffinman (Aug 31, 2009)

I really don't think that they will unless they can continue to release good rule sets they *might* be able to get close but even then GW will be on top for a while. 

Now if Mantic somehow gets a hold of Matt Ward then GW is really gonna be in some trouble.


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## Fallen DA (Aug 25, 2008)

If Mantic are clever with their marketing, able to appeal to a wide age range, and quicker off the mark than GW have been in getting cartoons, computer games and Films off the ground. Whilst at the same time supplying the necessary Models for those who prefer table top games. Which though not easy to achieve isn't impossible. Then they could pose a greater threat than anticipated? Pokemon damaged GW badly back in the day. I doubt there'd be any immediate threat though, unless they pull something really clever out the hat?


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## Giant Fossil Penguin (Apr 11, 2009)

If GW had become more conservative over time, then I would sa that any good-enough product, with good-enough support, wpould be able to knock it off in a single go, provided it is a truly stunning release in every way. As many businesses grow, they tend to lose the brashness of youth and become afraid to try the new, exciting, risky things they did at the very beginning. But GW continues to refresh- models get better, rules for each army change and the ruleset as a whole changes every few years; there's no single dynamic that hangs around and never changes. For all the complaining when new rules are released, it re-invigorates the scene, if only in small increments until the new main Ed comes around.
So, considereing this, how elese could GW be undone? Well, someone mentioned PP out-selling GW. Fair enough, that may be the case. But GW took 30 years to get where they are. Another company outselling them for a short peroid is no fuss. Sure, if PP does so over the next decade it might take some toll, but is it true that money spent on Warmachine is necessarily not spent on GW? Or do people like to have both? If the second is the case, GW's existence hurts PP just as much (in terms of expansion and miniature development) as PP's hurts GW.
It seems people are putting too much weight on one sweeping event, which is a bit naive. GW took 30 years, and many bumps, to get to where it is today. It is, compared to all of the others, a behemoth and the model that has shown its strength- disagree all you want, but 30 years and still going is a poweful argument.
If there is to be a passing of the torch, then we probably won't notice until a while after it's happened. Suddenly, there'll be no GW and none of their products. The Old World and the IMperium will fall silent, united in the peace of oblivion. Until someone's kid stumbles upon the stuff and then...

GFP


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## imm0rtal reaper (Jul 15, 2008)

Short answer: No!

The arrival of a single game isn't what will push GW from their top spot. That will be a culmination of various other games and GW own mistakes. 

If Mantic, or PP or any contenting company wants to make a serious dent at the moment, then I think the way in is Australia. With the way things are down there for GW fans, now is the prime time for some Australian specific marketing.


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## Djinn24 (Jan 12, 2008)

Their biggest asset is releasing alternative models for us to use in 40k. *IF* the rules are amazing as well as the models they might do something, but Mantic is hit or miss on their model design. Warmachine has its niche because it is different then 40k. If this game is anything like a clone of 40k they have a 30 year beast to fight. And as much as we may bitch about GW, its about as strong as it ever has been.


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## Marneus Calgar (Dec 5, 2007)

maddermax said:


> Actually, according to this site (ICv2), a comics and gaming industry website, Warmachine is already beating Warhammer Fantasy in terms of sales, and Hordes is close behind in 4th place. So PP is certainly getting up there, even if their business model doesn't include include their own chain of stores. It's like Iphone vs. Android in that respect: Apple has it's own stores, along with selling through other companies, while Android sells exclusively through other companies, but Android has managed to gain ground (and now has overtaken) Iphone sales despite the apple store advantage.


That isn't exactly the greatest in terms of accuracy, since it focuses on Q1 2011. That's 3 months.


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